Which of these scenarios are the most most likely to happen over the next three years? (2024-2027 edition)

Predicting the future is always a tricky business, but based on current trends and expert analysis, here are my thoughts on the relative likelihood of the scenarios you mentioned for the next three years (2024-2027): High Likelihood (8-9 out of 10): A significant increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events due to climate change: This is already happening, and with continued greenhouse gas emissions, it's likely to become even more pronounced. We can expect more heatwaves, droughts, floods, storms, and wildfires in the coming years. A global economic recession triggered by a combination of factors: The global economy is facing a number of challenges, including rising interest rates, geopolitical instability, and the ongoing pandemic. A recession is not inevitable, but it's certainly a possibility in the next few years. Moderate Likelihood (5-7 out of 10): A major cyberattack on critical infrastructure, causing widespread disruption and economic damage: Cyberattacks are becoming increasingly sophisticated and frequent, and critical infrastructure is a prime target. While a large-scale attack remains a risk, it's not as likely as some of the other scenarios on this list. A major natural disaster, such as a large earthquake or volcanic eruption: These events are unpredictable, but they do occur with some regularity. There's always a chance that a major disaster could strike in the next three years. Low Likelihood (3-4 out of 10): Significant progress in fusion energy research, leading to the development of commercially viable fusion reactors by 2027: Fusion energy has the potential to be a game-changer, but it's still in the early stages of development. A breakthrough in the next few years is unlikely, but not impossible. A major breakthrough in artificial intelligence, resulting in the creation of artificial general intelligence (AGI) by 2027: AGI is still a long way off, and many experts believe it may never be achieved. While AI will continue to advance rapidly, a true human-level AI is unlikely to emerge in the next three years. A significant improvement in international relations, leading to a decrease in global conflict and cooperation on major challenges: This would be a welcome development, but it's unlikely to happen overnight. Deep-rooted divisions and mistrust will take time to overcome. A major pandemic caused by a novel virus, leading to widespread illness and economic disruption: Another pandemic is certainly a possibility, but predicting when or how severe it will be is impossible. We should remain vigilant and prepared, but avoid unnecessary panic. A major technological breakthrough in space exploration, such as the first crewed mission to Mars: Space exploration is an exciting field, but sending humans to Mars is a complex and risky undertaking. It's unlikely to happen within the next three years, but it remains a long-term goal for many space agencies. A significant social or political upheaval, such as a major protest movement or revolution: Social and political unrest is always a possibility, but it's difficult to predict where or when it will occur. The next three years could see some significant protests or movements, but a full-blown revolution is unlikely. It's important to remember that these are just my best guesses based on the information available today. The future is always uncertain, and anything is possible. The most important thing is to be prepared for whatever comes our way.